Thursday, November 04, 2004

The Results

OK, Election 2004 is over and despite all the dire predictions it was a clean, unassailable victory for Turd Sandwich, I mean Bush. ;) While I'm disappointed, but not surprised, I don't think for one minute that it is the end of the world. What happens next? Not entirely sure, but that's the subject for another post after this one.
Anyway, Let's look at the races I predicted on Tuesday and see how my candidates fared and my guesses panned out.

U.S. Senate PA: Joe "Sacrifical Lamb" Hoeffel, Dem. and Arlen "Magic Bullet" Specter, Rep. Specter is the senior Senator from Pennsylvania, having represented us for the last 24 years. He is a moderate republican, as opposed to Rick Santorum's funadmentalist, arch-conservative, socially oppressive, slippery-slope, "I don't hate Gay people, just Homosexuality" loonyness. Conventional wisdom says Specter takes this handily, but I voted for Hoeffel, because, I'd rather have a Dem to counteract Santorum.

As predicted Specter won, though Hoeffel led early and made it a much tougher race than he's had in a while, but ultimately Specter won every county in Pennsylvania, except Philadelphia, and had a comfortable 500,000 vote edge. Though, Specter seems to have picked up a mission for his unprecedented 5th term. Money Quote: "The number-one item on my agenda is to try to move the party to the center," Specter said. Which is music to the ears of this independent libertarian. Hopefully, he can deliver on his promise. *** UPDATE *** Specter has since "clarified" this statment to mean that the Republicans don't have a rubber stamp majority in the Senate, and not that he, personally, was going to weed out anti-abortion judges. Hopefully, the Dems will be able to field a decent candidate to knock off Santorum in two years, as he's expressed Presidential aspirations recently and you can probably guess that I don't think he's Presidential timber at all. ;)

U.S. Congress 2nd District: Chaka Fattah, Dem and Stewart Bolno, Rep. After the 2000 election, there was much redistricting across the nation and we were part of the trend. So instead of being in the 13th District with the much more interesting battle between State Rep Allyson Schwartz and her perennial challenger and personal nemesis Melissa Brown, we get lumped in with part of Philadelphia and get the bulletproof Chaka Fattah and the poor, dumb soul the Republicans nominate to "take one for the team." Fattah is a good, effective politician for the district and a decent human being, which makes voting for him a no brainer.

Again, this was one in the bag for Fattah, who's margin of victory was 213,000 votes. Considering that just over 280,000 votes were cast in this district, Bolno really was a sacrificial lamb.

State Attorney General: Jim Eisenhower, Dem. and Tom Corbett, Rep. I could have gone either way on this one. Though Corbett's ads tried to paint Eisenhower as soft on crime because he was a defense attorney and actually managed to get some of his clients off. Donna and I split on this one, I think, mainly because we thought each one would have made a decent attorney general. So, I went with Eisenhower and I believe Donna went with Corbett, so we'll see how that turns out.

This was a relatively close race, judging by Corbett's margin of victory of 118,000 votes out of roughly 5,345,000. So, Donna gets the points for this one. Again, either guy was good in my book, so it's win-win. And it also proves that Pennsylvanians didn't just vote party line.

State Auditor General: Jack Wagner, Dem and Joe Peters, Rep. Reading through the candidates positions and statements, I'm going with Peters as Auditor General, as he looks like the better candidate.

Wagner won this one with a more comfortable 300,000+ vote edge, which is shame, because I thought Peters was actually the better candidate.

State Treasurer: Bob Casey, Dem. and Jeanne Pepper, Rep. Casey is the son of former PA governor Bob Casey and is looking to possibly springboard a governorship in a couple of years. He is a tool, however, and Jeanne Pepper has the goods for the job. Also, I traditionally vote Republican in financial positions, since conservatives historically, tend to reign in spending as much as possible, and that's a good thing. Nobody should ever spend money recklessly, especially government.

Regardless of how much a tool Casey is, he's a well-funded tool. And he easily beat Pepper by a dominant 1.4 million votes. Oh well, I guess the majority of Pennsylvanians either didn't see the debate Pepper crushed him in, or saw it differently than I did.

State House of Representatives, 154th District: Larry Curry, Dem. and Jeffrey Belford, Rep. This one is also a no brainer, for me at least. I'm heavily biased toward Larry Curry, considering I've met him a few times, been over his house once or twice and went to school with his daughter, Jackie. (She was one or two years my junior.) He's been our State Rep, for as long as I can remember, and every two years, I keep voting to send him back.

Curry wins by 16,660 votes out of 33,448. I'm pretty sure this job is his as long as he wants it or he lives, which ever comes first.

So those are my choices. Wait, what's that? What about the Presidential race? Well, we all know who's running and what they stand for. (At least we should after being repeatedly assaulted by their commercials for an entire year.) So, I voted for Giant Douche over Turd Sandwich.

As we all know by now, Bush (Turd Sandwich) won re-election. And it was a decisive victory, as 60% of the eligible voting populationn turned out for this election and he won the popular vote by 3.5 million votes or 3% The vote total as the MSM will tell you surpassed that which got Reagan elected, but as a percentage of the population, Reagan still ranks higher. More importantly, he won the electoral college handily 286 to 252. Which means that Kerry (Giant Douche) lost states that Gore (Giant Dildo) won in 2000. And the Democrats lost ground in the Senate and in the House, so something's gotta change among the Democrats and may I humbly suggest the axeing of DNC chairman Terry McAuliffe. Under his watch, the Democrats have two Presidential elections and have lost ground in the mid-term elections. Not to mention that he's a partisan hack.

My friend Matt sent out a election pool sheet he got at his work, and while I can't win, I did make some predictions based on their sheet for a couple local and national races. Here's the sheet and my predictions.

9 Senate Races

Dem. Joseph Hoeffel****** Rep. Sen. Arlen Specter

Specter wins, it's closer than polls suggest, but he still has a decent margin of victory.

Specter 53% Hoeffel 42%, That's a couple percentage points closer than was polled, but still a handy win.

Dem. Brad Carson ****** Rep. Tom Coburn

Coburn Wins

Coburn did indeed win by a 10 percentage point margin. This might have been Presidential coattails as Bush easily won Oklahoma.

South Dakota
Dem. Sen. Tom Daschle******Rep. John Thune

Thune wins upset, in the sense of unseating an incumbent, not in the underdog sense. Thune is leading Daschle in the polls.
Matt says: "Looking at SD, there are more than enough undecideds to turn the thing around, and I think they'll go for the incumbent in that race. I almost picked Thune, but I think Daschle will survive in the end."

The other crowing point of this election for the GOP, after spending an assload of money, the removal of the Senate Minority leader, Daschle loses by 4000 votes which represents 2% of the South Dakotan voters. So I guessed right, and Matt guessed wrong.

Dem. Betty Castor ******Rep. Mel Martinez

Martinez wins because Bush wins Florida handily this time around. Matt says: "In FL, I'll really kick myself if I got it wrong, because I really had a good hunch about Martinez, both for the reason you mentioned and because he's Cuban. But the polling on Castor is too strong for me to ignore, so I went with her in the end." My response: "Oh, there was polling putting Castor ahead? Hmm, oh well, we'll see I guess."

It was a tight, tight race that took a few days post election to call, but in the end I guessed right, again. While, Bush had a 5% point margin of victory, Martinez only had a 2% edge, so Presidential coattails didn't help him out as much as I thought it might.

Dem. Tony Knowles******Rep. Sen Lisa Murkowski

Knowles win this one. Murkowski is battling a charge of nepotism, which is appropriate since her father, the governor, did appoint her, while Knowles is a popular ex-governor I think.

But, not popular enough, apparently. losing by 10,000 votes and 4% points. What's interesting is that Murkowski did not break 50%, even though Bush crushed Kerry 62% to 35% in Alaska.

Dem. Nancy Farmer******Rep. Sen Kit Bond

I picked Kit Bond for this one. Missouri had a big Senate Race 4 years ago, you remember that one, where John Ashcroft lost the popular, but very late Mel Carnahan.

Bond wins this one by a larger margin than Bush takes the state. 56%-43% vs. 54% - 46%.

Dem. Ken Salazar******Rep. Peter Coors

I almost picked Pete Coors on this one, since he's the scion of the Coors Brewery and he's got name recognition, but it appears Salazar is a more popular figure in Colorado and has comfortable lead in every poll, so Salazar it is.

With a decent 5% margin of victory Salazar wins Colorado, even though Bush wins the State by the same 5% margin. 52%-47%

North Carolina
Dem. Erskine Bowles******Rep. Richard Burr

I picked Erskine Bowles to win by a razor thin margin. Matt thinks Burr is going to win. This one is all related to Clinton as Erskine Bowles was Clinton's Chief of Staff, I think. Bowles had a comfortable lead a few months ago, until Burr started running ads reminding North Carolinians that Bowles worked for Clinton, now it's a dog fight, and really too close to call.

Erskine Bowles loses John Edwards seat for the Democrats, by 5% points. Apparently North Carolinians don't like Clintonites very much. Note to North Carolina Democratic Party, Bowles has now lost twice, time to pick a new horse.

South Carolina
Dem. Inez Tenenbaum******Rep. Jim DeMint

All the gay baiting propels Jim DeMint to join Rick Santorum in the looney, fundamentalist, right wing branch of the Senate. Way to go, South Carolina.

With a very comfortable 10% point margin, Jim "Gay Marriage is bad" DeMint fills Strom Thurmond's shoes.

House of Representative Races

Pennsylvania 6th District
Dem. Lois Murphy*******Rep. Jim Gerlach

I said: "Hmm, Lois Murphy, I've seen more negative commercials against Gerlach than I have against Murphy, and we all know if you repeat something enough times, it becomes true. ;)"

Gerlach manages to squeeze out a 6000 vote victory.

Pennsylvania 13th District
Dem. Allyson Schwartz*******Rep. Melissa Brown

As I mentioned before, Melissa Brown is always running against Allyson Schwartz, it's like a personal vendetta with her or something. Anyway, Allyson Schwartz smacks the sleazy ho down like an angry pimp.

Schwartz slaps Brown down for a 15% margin, but it's not the bitch slap I thought it was going to be (25%+) So, we'll see Brown running after Schwartz again in two years. Yay.

Texas 32nd District
Dem. Congressman Martin Frost ******VS******* Rep. Congressman Pete Sessions**

**These two experienced and partisan lawmakers are waging a North Dallas slugfest marked by massive spending and bitter exchanges. Both are incumbents.

You remember a while ago when all the Texas Democrats ran away to New Mexico and Arkansas to protest the redistricting in Texas instigated by Tom Delay, and you remember Tom Delay using the Office of Homeland Security to find them and bring them back, as if he was the Governor? Yeah, this is what they were protesting. My pick, Pete Sessions reaps the fruits of Tom Delay's meddling.

I guessed right on this one. Most of the Republican incumbents beat out the Democratic incumbents in the Texas redistricting. It was not close though, Sessions had a 10% point margin. Oh well, maybe DeLay will get an ethics violation to stick to him when he comes up for reelection in '06

Who will win the Presidential Race?

Dem. Senator John Kerry******* Rep. President George W. Bush

My pick: Bush wins the Presidency by 10 electoral votes.

Got the pick right, but not the spread. 286 to 252, a difference of 34 votes. As I mentioned Kerry lost 2 states that voted for Gore in the last election. (NM, IA). This year Ohio was the key, and unlike the pundits were predicting, there was no new Florida debacle.

What Presidential Candidate will win the battleground state of Pennsylvania?

Dem. Senator John Kerry******* Rep. President George W. Bush

Once again, the Giant Philly Democratic Machine delivers the State of PA to the Democratic candidate, John Kerry, by the same margin Gore won the state in 2000.

Again, I get the outcome right, but the spread wrong. Gore won PA by approximately 200,000 votes in 2000, while Kerry won by about 130,000. Bush added 2% to his total this time. 51%-47% in 2000 compared to 51%-49% in 2004. But, again, it looks like Philadelphia and her suburbs were the margin of victory.

Tie Breaker

What percent of the vote will the Barrack Obama, Senate Candidate from Illinois receive?

You remember Barrack Obama, darling of the Democratic National Convention and "potential superstar" for the Democrats, whatever that means. My pick: Barrack Obama 67%, Alan Keyes 30%, Other 3%. This one really is a gimme, though, as most polls are putting Obama between 62%-69% of the vote.

In what is really the story of this election, the polls were off. Obama wins 70% to 27%.

So, there you have it. Election 2004 in the history books, without all the drama and agony of the 2000 election. As I mentioned, before I'll probably post my thoughts on what this all means, hopefully, soon. And we'll see what 4 more years of W, brings us.


Post a Comment

<< Home